Economics 391: Economics and Business Statistics, spring 2013
Instructor: Prof. Jeremy A. Sandford
Office hour: M 2:00-2:50pm, 335L B&E, or by appointment
Lecture:
9:00-9:50am MWF, BE 301
Exam dates:
Monday February 4, Friday March 1, and Friday April 5, in class
Final exam
date: Wednesday, May 1, 8am-10am
Required texts: Keller, Statistics, South-Western College Pub
Homework 1, answers
Homework 2, answers
Homework 3, answers
Homework 4, answers
Homework 5, answers
Homework 6, not collected
(final exam prep), answers
Schedule
Wednesday, January 9: Basic probability
reading: Keller, chapter 6
reading: The probability of injustice, The Economist,
1/22/2004
Friday, January 11: Conditional probability, random
variables, mean and variance
reading: Keller, chapters 6-7
Monday, January 14: binomial random variables: setup
reading: Keller, chapter 7
Wednesday, January 16: binomial random variables: practice,
and poisson random variables
reading: Keller, chapter 7
Friday, January 18: binomial and poisson random variables,
continuous probability distributions
reading: Keller, chapters 7-8
Monday, January 21: no class (academic holiday)
Wednesday, January 23: Uniform and exponential random
variables, continuous probability distributions
reading: Keller, chapter 8
Friday, January 25: Exponential and normal random variables
reading: keller, chapter 8
Monday, January 28: Normal distribution; standardizing
normal probabilities
reading: Keller, chapter 8
Wednesday, January 30: Normal distribution; what percentage
of 7-footers are in the NBA?
reading: Keller, chapter 8
Friday, February 1: snow cancellation
Monday, February 4: Exam 1 review
Last year's
first
midterm (with answers)
Wednesday, February 6: Exam 1, exam with answers, grade distribution
chapters 6-8
Friday, February 8: Sampling distributions
reading: Keller, chapter 9
Monday, February 11: Sampling distributions, practice
problems
reading: Keller, chapter 9
Wednesday, February 13: Sampling distributions of
proportions, estimation
reading: Keller, chapters 9-10
Friday, February 15: Estimation, confidence intervals
reading: Keller, chapter 10
Monday, February 18: Statistically testing hypotheses
reading: Keller, chapter 11
Wednesday, February 20: Hypothesis testing continued: type
I and type II errors, one- and two-sided hypotheses tests
reading: Keller, chapter 11
Friday, February 22: Hypothesis testing continued: p-values
reading: Keller, chapter 11
Monday, February 25: Hypothesis testing continued:
calculating the probability of type II errors
reading: Keller, chapter
11
Wednesday, February 27: exam review
Last semester's midterm
2 (ignore unfamiliar problems, i.e. on regression)
Friday, March 1: Exam #2 (with answers)
topics: confidence intervals and hypothesis tests (chapters 10 and 11)
Monday, March 4: Introduction to regression analysis
reading: Keller, chapter 16
Wednesday, March 6: Regression analysis
reading: Keller, chapter 16
Friday, March 8: No class (enjoy spring break)
Monday, March 11: no class (spring break)
Wednesday, March 13: no class (spring break)
Friday, March 15: no class (spring break)
Monday, March 18: regression: assessing computer-generated
results
reading: Keller, chapter 16
Wednesday, March 20: regression: significant coefficients
reading: Keller, chapter 16
Friday, March 22: the t-distribution versus the normal
distribution, example problems
reading: Keller, chapter 16
Monday, March 25: Multiple regression: introduction
reading: Keller, chapter 17
Wednesday, March 27: Multiple regression
reading: Keller, chapter 17
Friday, March 29: Multiple regression
reading: Keller, chapter 17
Monday, April 1: Multiple regression: example problems
reading: Keller, chapter 17
Wednesday, April 3: Exam review
Last year's midterm 2
Last year's final exam
(study only regression questions)
Friday, April 5: Exam #3
topics: single- and multi-variable regression, Keller chapters 16-17.3
Monday, April 8: Dummy variables, interaction terms, and
polynoimal terms
reading: Keller, chapter 18
Wednesday, April 10: Dummy variables, interaction terms, and
polynoimal terms
reading: Keller, chapter 18
Friday, April 12: Mandatory office hours for group project
(no class)
9am: Ellie, Lee, Victoria, Zach, and Andrew
9:10am: Shawn, Michael, Evan, Matthew, and Shannon
9:20am: Taylor, Nathan, Alec, Nelson, and Christina
9:30am: Carly, Megan, Audrey, Will, and Ana
Monday, April 15: Mandatory office hours for group project
(no class)
9am: Juwan, Matthew, Zachary, Bryan, and Lucas
9:10am: Saphace, Lauren, Chris, Hiral, and Dane
9:20am: Max, Brian, Devin, Evan, and Bryan
9:30am: Max, Jennifer, Katie, William, and Lauren
Wednesday, April 17: Lying with statistics: Simpson's
paradox
reading: (Dis)aggregation and
Simpson's paradox
Friday, April 19: Lying with statistics: examples
Examples of dubious statistical
claims
Momentous spring at the 2156 Olympics?, Tatem et al.,
Nature 431 (525), September 30, 2004,
Monday, April 22: Lying with statistics: group exercises
slides from class
Wednesday, April 24: Application: relationship between
police and crime
reading: Klick, Jonathan and Alexander Tabarrok (2005), "Using
terror alert
levels to estimate the effect of police on crime," Journal of Law and
Economics, 48(1), 267-279
Friday, April 26: no class
Wednesday, May 1, 8am: Final exam