Economics 391: Economics and Business Statistics, fall 2012


Instructor: Prof. Jeremy A. Sandford

Office hour: TR 3-4pm, 335L B&E, or by appointment
Lecture: 9:30-10:45am TH, BE 206

Exam dates: Tuesday, September 25 and Thursday, October 25, in class
Final exam date: Tuesday, December 11, 8am-10am

Required texts: Keller, Statistics, South-Western College Pub

Syllabus

Homework 1, answers
Homework 2, answers
Homework 3, answers
Homework 4, answers
Homework 5, not collected (final exam prep)

Final project


Schedule


Thursday, August 23: Basic probability
reading: Keller, chapter 6
reading: The probability of injustice, The Economist, 1/22/2004

Tuesday, August 28: Conditional probability, random variables, mean and variance, binomial distribution
reading: Keller, chapters 6-7
reading: LA Times article on mammogram guidelines (referenced in class in discussion about false positives and conditional probabilitites)

Thursday, August 30: Binomial, Poisson, and uniform random variables, probability calculations in Excel
reading: Keller, chapters 7-8

Tuesday, September 4: Exponential and normal random variables
reading: Keller, chapter 8
reading: What fraction of 7-footers are in the NBA

Thursday, September 6: Standardizing normal random variables, using normal probability tables
reading: Keller, chapter 8

Tuesday, September 11: Sampling distributions
reading: Keller, chapter 9

Thursday, September 13: Sampling distributions of means and propostions, several example problems
reading: Keller, chapter 9

Tuesday, September 18: Estimation, confidence intervals for means
reading: Keller, chapter 10

Thursday, September 20: Exam review

Tuesday, September 25: Midterm 1 (with answers)
grade distribution

Thursday, September 27: Hypothesis tests, type I and type II error
reading: Keller, chapter 11

Tuesday, October 2: Introduction to hypothesis tests, type I and type II errors
reading: Keller, chapter 11

Thursday, October 4: Two-tailed hypothesis tests, p-values
reading: Keller, chapter 11

Tuesday, October 9: Calculating the probability of type II error, example problems
reading: Keller, chapter 11

Thursday, October 11: Introduction to regression analysis
reading: Keller, chapter 16

Tuesday, October 16: T-distribution, examples of regression in Excel
reading: Keller, chapter 16
ANES2008 data set
GSS2008 data set

Thursday, October 18: Multiple regression, example of getting and using iPums data
reading: Keller, chapter 17

Tuesday, October 23: Midterm II review

Thursday, October 25: Midterm II (with answers)
grade distribution

Tuesday, October 30: Multiple regression: correlation versus causation, the importance of control variables
reading: Levitt, S. (2003) "Prison conditions, captial punishment, and deterrence", American Law and Economics review, 5.2, pp. 318-343
Keller, chapter 17

Thursday, November 1: Multiple regression: multicollinearity, dummy variables and non-linear relationships
reading: Keller, chapter 18

Tuesday, November 6: No class (election day)

Thursday, November 8: data versus hunches in the 2012 election, the relationship between college football games and crime
reading: College Football Games and Crime, Journal of Sports Economics, vol 10, no. 1, 2009

Tuesday, November 13: Discrimination on Weakest Link
reading: Testing theories of discrimination: Evidence from Weakest Link, Steven Levitt, 2004, Journal of Law and Economics

Thursday, November 15: Simpsons's paradox, lying with statistics
reading: (Dis)aggregation and Simpson's paradox
Examples of dubious statistical claims
Momentous spring at the 2156 Olympics?, Tatem et al., Nature 431 (525), September 30, 2004,

Tuesday, November 20: No class

Thursday, November 22: No class

Tuesday, November 27: Lying with statistics
reading: slides from class, with explanations

Thursday, November 29: Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
reading: Sandholm and Saranti, Chapter 3, The Capital Asset Pricing Model
Two assets spreadsheet
Three assets spreadsheet

Tuesday, December 4: Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
reading: Sandholm and Saranti, Chapter 3, The Capital Asset Pricing Model
Two assets spreadsheet
Three assets spreadsheet

Thursday, December 6: Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
reading: Sandholm and Saranti, Chapter 3, The Capital Asset Pricing Model
Two assets spreadsheet
Three assets spreadsheet
Three risky assets and one safe asset

Tuesday, December 11, 8am: Final exam