# Economics 391: Economics and Business Statistics, spring 2014

Instructor: Prof. Jeremy A. Sandford

Office hour: TH 12:30-1:30pm, 335L B&E, or by appointment

Lecture:
3:30-4:45pm MW, BE 301

Midterm exam dates:
Monday February 24, and Wednesday, April 2, in class

Final
exam
date: Monday, May 5, 3:30pm-5:30pm

**Required texts**: Keller, Statistics, South-Western College Pub

Homework 1, answers

Homework 2, answers

Homework 3, answers

Homework 4, answers
datasets:Xr16-11,
Xr16-15,
Xr16-107,
GSS2008.xls

Homework 5, answers,
datasets: Xr18-17,
GSS2008.xls (nb. For problem 4, in the GSS data sex=1 means male, sex=2 means female)

Homework 6 (ungraded), answers

# Schedule

**Wednesday, January 15:** Basic probability exercises

reading: Keller, chapter 6

reading: The probability of injustice, *The Economist*,
1/22/2004

optional: An interview with Emily Oster

**Monday, January 20:** no class (MLK Day)

**Wednesday, January 22:** Conditional probability, random
variables, mean and variance

reading: Keller, chapters 6-7

**Monday, January 27:** Binomial and Poisson random variables,
example problems

reading: Keller, chapter 7

**Wednesday, January 29:** no class

**Monday, February 3:** no class

**Wednesday, February 5:** no class

**Monday, February 10:** Continuous probability distributions: uniform, exponential, and normal

reading: Keller, chapter 8

**Wednesday, February 12:** Properties of the normal distribution, standard normal distribution

reading: Keller, chapter 8

**Monday, February 17:** Sampling distributions, interval
estimates

reading: Keller, chapter 9

**Wednesda, February 19:** sampling distributions, interval
estimation, exam review

reading: Keller, chaopters 9-10

**Monday, February 24:** Midterm exam 1 (exam, with answers)

topics: basica probability, discrete and continuous probability distributions, sampling distributions

Fall 2013 midterm 1, answers

Spring 2013 midterm 1, answers

**Wednesday, February 26:** Estimation, confidence intervals

reading: Keller, chapter 10

**Monday, March 3:** no class

**Wednesday, March 5:** hypothesis testing: terminology, rejection regions, type I errors

reading: Keller, chapter 11

**Monday, March 10:** hypothesis testing: p-values and probability of type II error

reading: Keller, chapter 11

**Wednesday, March 12:** linear regression analysis: terminology, interpreting regression coefficients

reading: Keller, chapter 16

**Monday, March 17:** no class (spring break)

**Wednesday, March 19:** no class (spring break)

**Monday, March 24:** regression: desirable properties of error terms, R^2, using Excel to produce regression results

reading: Keller, chapter 16

**Wednesday, March 26:** more practice with producing and interpreting results. F statistics, adjusted R^2, predicting values of y for given values of x

reading: Keller, chapter 16

**Monday, March 31:** regression, exam review

**Wednesday, April 2:** Midterm 2 (topics: interval estimation, hypothesis testing, regression)

Fall 2013 Midterm 2, answers

Spring 2013 Midterm 2, answers

Fall 2012 Midterm 2, answers

**Monday, April 7:** Intro to multiple regression

reading: Keller, chapter 17

**Wednesday, April 9:** Multiple regression

reading: Keller, chapter 17

**Monday, April 14:** The effect of police on crime

reading: Klick, Jonathan and Alexander Tabarrok (2005), "Using
terror alert
levels to estimate the effect of police on crime," *Journal of Law and
Economics*, 48(1), 267-279

**Wednesday, April 16:** Dummy variables, polynomial models, model building

reading: Keller, chapter 19

**Monday, April 21:** Mandatory office hour meetings to discuss group regression projects schedule

**Wednesday, April 23:** The effect of prison conditions and the death penalty on crime

reading: Katz, Lawrence, Steven Levitt, and Ellen Shustorovich (2003), "Prison conditions, capital punishment, and deterrence," American Law and Economics Review, 5(2), 318-343

** Monday, April 28:** Lying with statistics: Simpson's paradox and examples

reading: (Dis)aggregation and Simpson's paradox

Momentous spring at the 2156 Olympics?

Examples of dubious statistical claims

**Wednesday, April 30:** Lying with statistics: group exercises

Futher examples (with explanations)

**Monday, May 5, 3:30pm:** final exam (cumulative)

Fall 2013 final exam

Spring 2013 final exam