# Economics 391: Economics and Business Statistics, spring 2013

Instructor: Prof. Jeremy A. Sandford

Office hour: M 2:00-2:50pm, 335L B&E, or by appointment

Lecture:
9:00-9:50am MWF, BE 301

Exam dates:
Monday February 4, Friday March 1, and Friday April 5, in class

Final exam
date: Wednesday, May 1, 8am-10am

**Required texts**: Keller, Statistics, South-Western College Pub

Homework 1, answers

Homework 2, answers

Homework 3, answers

Homework 4, answers

Homework 5, answers

Homework 6, not collected
(final exam prep), answers

# Schedule

**Wednesday, January 9:** Basic probability

reading: Keller, chapter 6

reading: The probability of injustice, *The Economist*,
1/22/2004

**Friday, January 11:** Conditional probability, random
variables, mean and variance

reading: Keller, chapters 6-7

**Monday, January 14:** binomial random variables: setup

reading: Keller, chapter 7

**Wednesday, January 16:** binomial random variables: practice,
and poisson random variables

reading: Keller, chapter 7

**Friday, January 18:** binomial and poisson random variables,
continuous probability distributions

reading: Keller, chapters 7-8

**Monday, January 21:** no class (academic holiday)

**Wednesday, January 23:** Uniform and exponential random
variables, continuous probability distributions

reading: Keller, chapter 8

**Friday, January 25:** Exponential and normal random variables

reading: keller, chapter 8

**Monday, January 28:** Normal distribution; standardizing
normal probabilities

reading: Keller, chapter 8

**Wednesday, January 30:** Normal distribution; what percentage
of 7-footers are in the NBA?

reading: Keller, chapter 8

**Friday, February 1:** snow cancellation

**Monday, February 4:** Exam 1 review

Last year's
first
midterm (with answers)

**Wednesday, February 6:** Exam 1, exam with answers, grade distribution

chapters 6-8

**Friday, February 8:** Sampling distributions

reading: Keller, chapter 9

**Monday, February 11:** Sampling distributions, practice
problems

reading: Keller, chapter 9

**Wednesday, February 13:** Sampling distributions of
proportions, estimation

reading: Keller, chapters 9-10

**Friday, February 15:** Estimation, confidence intervals

reading: Keller, chapter 10

**Monday, February 18:** Statistically testing hypotheses

reading: Keller, chapter 11

**Wednesday, February 20:** Hypothesis testing continued: type
I and type II errors, one- and two-sided hypotheses tests

reading: Keller, chapter 11

**Friday, February 22:** Hypothesis testing continued: p-values

reading: Keller, chapter 11

**Monday, February 25:** Hypothesis testing continued:
calculating the probability of type II errors

reading: Keller, chapter
11

**Wednesday, February 27:** exam review

Last semester's midterm
2 (ignore unfamiliar problems, i.e. on regression)

**Friday, March 1:** Exam #2 (with answers)

topics: confidence intervals and hypothesis tests (chapters 10 and 11)

**Monday, March 4:** Introduction to regression analysis

reading: Keller, chapter 16

**Wednesday, March 6:** Regression analysis

reading: Keller, chapter 16

**Friday, March 8:** No class (enjoy spring break)

**Monday, March 11:** no class (spring break)

**Wednesday, March 13:** no class (spring break)

**Friday, March 15:** no class (spring break)

**Monday, March 18:** regression: assessing computer-generated
results

reading: Keller, chapter 16

**Wednesday, March 20:** regression: significant coefficients

reading: Keller, chapter 16

**Friday, March 22:** the t-distribution versus the normal
distribution, example problems

reading: Keller, chapter 16

**Monday, March 25:** Multiple regression: introduction

reading: Keller, chapter 17

**Wednesday, March 27:** Multiple regression

reading: Keller, chapter 17

**Friday, March 29:** Multiple regression

reading: Keller, chapter 17

**Monday, April 1:** Multiple regression: example problems

reading: Keller, chapter 17

**Wednesday, April 3:** Exam review

Last year's midterm 2

Last year's final exam
(study only regression questions)

**Friday, April 5:** Exam #3

topics: single- and multi-variable regression, Keller chapters 16-17.3

**Monday, April 8:** Dummy variables, interaction terms, and
polynoimal terms

reading: Keller, chapter 18

**Wednesday, April 10:** Dummy variables, interaction terms, and
polynoimal terms

reading: Keller, chapter 18

**Friday, April 12:** Mandatory office hours for group project
(no class)

9am: Ellie, Lee, Victoria, Zach, and Andrew

9:10am: Shawn, Michael, Evan, Matthew, and Shannon

9:20am: Taylor, Nathan, Alec, Nelson, and Christina

9:30am: Carly, Megan, Audrey, Will, and Ana

**Monday, April 15:** Mandatory office hours for group project
(no class)

9am: Juwan, Matthew, Zachary, Bryan, and Lucas

9:10am: Saphace, Lauren, Chris, Hiral, and Dane

9:20am: Max, Brian, Devin, Evan, and Bryan

9:30am: Max, Jennifer, Katie, William, and Lauren

**Wednesday, April 17:** Lying with statistics: Simpson's
paradox

reading: (Dis)aggregation and
Simpson's paradox

**Friday, April 19:** Lying with statistics: examples

Examples of dubious statistical
claims

Momentous spring at the 2156 Olympics?, Tatem et al.,
*Nature* **431** (525), September 30, 2004,

**Monday, April 22:** Lying with statistics: group exercises

slides from class

**Wednesday, April 24: ** Application: relationship between
police and crime

reading: Klick, Jonathan and Alexander Tabarrok (2005), "Using
terror alert
levels to estimate the effect of police on crime," *Journal of Law and
Economics*, 48(1), 267-279

**Friday, April 26: ** no class

**Wednesday, May 1, 8am:** Final exam