Economics 391: Economics and Business Statistics, fall 2012
Instructor: Prof. Jeremy A. Sandford
Office hour: TR 3-4pm, 335L B&E, or by appointment
Lecture:
9:30-10:45am TH, BE 206
Exam dates:
Tuesday, September 25 and Thursday, October 25, in class
Final exam
date: Tuesday, December 11, 8am-10am
Required texts: Keller, Statistics, South-Western College Pub
Homework 1, answers
Homework 2, answers
Homework 3, answers
Homework 4, answers
Homework 5, not collected
(final exam prep)
Schedule
Thursday, August 23: Basic probability
reading: Keller, chapter 6
reading: The probability of injustice, The Economist,
1/22/2004
Tuesday, August 28: Conditional probability, random
variables, mean and variance, binomial distribution
reading: Keller, chapters 6-7
reading: LA Times article on mammogram
guidelines (referenced in class in discussion about false positives and
conditional probabilitites)
Thursday, August 30: Binomial, Poisson, and uniform random
variables, probability calculations in Excel
reading: Keller, chapters 7-8
Tuesday, September 4: Exponential and normal random
variables
reading: Keller, chapter 8
reading: What fraction of
7-footers are in the NBA
Thursday, September 6: Standardizing normal random
variables, using normal probability tables
reading: Keller, chapter 8
Tuesday, September 11: Sampling distributions
reading: Keller, chapter 9
Thursday, September 13: Sampling distributions of means and
propostions, several example problems
reading: Keller, chapter 9
Tuesday, September 18: Estimation, confidence intervals for
means
reading: Keller, chapter 10
Thursday, September 20: Exam review
Tuesday, September 25: Midterm 1 (with
answers)
grade distribution
Thursday, September 27: Hypothesis tests, type I and type
II error
reading: Keller, chapter 11
Tuesday, October 2: Introduction to hypothesis tests,
type I and type II errors
reading: Keller, chapter 11
Thursday, October 4: Two-tailed hypothesis tests, p-values
reading: Keller, chapter 11
Tuesday, October 9: Calculating the probability of type II
error, example problems
reading: Keller, chapter 11
Thursday, October 11: Introduction to regression analysis
reading: Keller, chapter 16
Tuesday, October 16: T-distribution, examples of regression
in Excel
reading: Keller, chapter 16
ANES2008 data set
GSS2008 data set
Thursday, October 18: Multiple regression, example of
getting and using iPums data
reading: Keller, chapter 17
Tuesday, October 23: Midterm II review
Thursday, October 25: Midterm II (with answers)
grade distribution
Tuesday, October 30: Multiple regression: correlation versus
causation, the importance of control variables
reading:
Levitt, S. (2003) "Prison conditions, captial punishment, and
deterrence", American Law and Economics review, 5.2, pp. 318-343
Keller, chapter 17
Thursday, November 1: Multiple regression:
multicollinearity, dummy variables and non-linear relationships
reading: Keller, chapter 18
Tuesday, November 6: No class (election day)
Thursday, November 8: data versus hunches in the 2012
election, the relationship between college football games and crime
reading: College Football Games and Crime, Journal of Sports
Economics, vol 10, no. 1, 2009
Tuesday, November 13: Discrimination on Weakest Link
reading: Testing theories of discrimination: Evidence from Weakest
Link, Steven Levitt, 2004, Journal of Law and Economics
Thursday, November 15: Simpsons's paradox, lying with
statistics
reading: (Dis)aggregation and
Simpson's paradox
Examples of dubious statistical
claims
Momentous spring at the 2156 Olympics?, Tatem et al.,
Nature 431 (525), September 30, 2004,
Tuesday, November 20: No class
Thursday, November 22: No class
Tuesday, November 27: Lying with statistics
reading: slides from class,
with explanations
Thursday, November 29: Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
reading: Sandholm and Saranti,
Chapter 3, The Capital Asset Pricing Model
Two assets spreadsheet
Three assets spreadsheet
Tuesday, December 4: Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
reading: Sandholm and Saranti,
Chapter 3, The Capital Asset Pricing Model
Two assets spreadsheet
Three assets spreadsheet
Thursday, December 6: Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
reading: Sandholm and Saranti,
Chapter 3, The Capital Asset Pricing Model
Two assets spreadsheet
Three assets spreadsheet
Three risky assets and one
safe asset
Tuesday, December 11, 8am: Final exam