# Economics 391: Economics and Business Statistics, fall 2013

Instructor: Prof. Jeremy A. Sandford

Office hour: TH 4:00-5:00pm, 335L B&E, or by appointment

Lecture:
2:00-3:15pm MW, BE 301

Midterm exam dates:
Wednesday October 2, and Monday, November 4, in class

Final
exam
date: Monday, December 16, 10:30am-12:30pm

**Required texts**: Keller, Statistics, South-Western College Pub

Homework 1, answers

Homework 2, answers

Homework 3, answers

Homework 4, answers

Homework 5, answers

December 4 office hours schedule

# Schedule

**Wednesday, August 28:** Basic probability exercises

reading: Keller, chapter 6

reading: The probability of injustice, *The Economist*,
1/22/2004

optional: An interview with Emily Oster

**Monday, September 2:** no class (Labor Day)

**Wednesday, September 4:** Conditional probability, random
variables, mean and variance

reading: Keller, chapters 6-7

**Monday, September 9:** Binomial and Poisson random variables,
example problems

reading: Keller, chapter 7

**Wednesday, September 11:** Continuous probability
distributions: uniform and exponential random variables

reading: Keller, chapter 8

**Monday, September 16:** Normal distribution, standardizing
normal probabilities

reading: Keller, chapter 8

**Wednesday, September 18:** No class

**Monday, September 23:** Normal distribution probability
calculations

reading: Keller, chapter 8

optional: List of all
US-born 7-footers in NBA since 2000 (article)

**Wednesday, September 25:** Sampling distributions, interval
estimates

reading: Keller, chapter 9

**Monday, September 30:** Sampling distributions, interval
estimates, exam review

reading: Keller, chapter 9

**Wednesday, October 2:** Midterm Exam 1, Keller chapters 6-9

midterm exam (with
answers)

**Monday, October 7:** sampling distributions, interval
estimation

reading: Keller, chaopters 9-10

**Wednesday, October 9:** interval estimation

reading: Keller, chapter 10

**Monday, October 14:** hypothesis testing: terminology, rejection regions, type I errors

reading: Keller, chapter 11

**Wednesday, October 16:** hypothesis testing: p-values and probability of type II error

reading: Keller, chapter 11

**Monday, October 21:** linear regression analysis: terminology, interpreting regression coefficients

reading: Keller, chapter 16

**Wednesday, October 23:** regression: desirable properties of error terms, R^2, using Excel to produce regression results

reading: Keller, chapter 16

**Monday, October 28:** regression: more practice with producing and interpreting results. F statistics, adjusted R^2, predicting values of y for given values of x

reading: Keller, chapter 16

**Wednesday, October 30:**regression, exam review

reading: Keller, chapters 16

**Monday, November 4:** Midterm Exam 2 (with answers), covering chapters 9-11, 16

Last semester's second midterm, answers

Last semester's third midterm, answers

**Wednesday, November 6:** Intro to multiple regression

reading: Keller, chapter 17

**Monday, November 11:** Multiple regression

reading: Keller, chapter 17

**Wednesday, November 13:** The effect of police on crime

reading: Klick, Jonathan and Alexander Tabarrok (2005), "Using
terror alert
levels to estimate the effect of police on crime," *Journal of Law and
Economics*, 48(1), 267-279

**Monday, November 18:** Dummy variables, polynomial models, model building

reading: Keller, chapter 19

**Wednesday, November 20:** The effect of medical marijuana laws on traffic fatalities

reading: Anderson, Mark, Benjamin Hansen, and Daniel Rees (2013) "Medical Marijuana Laws, Traffic Fatalities, and Alcohol Consumption", *Journal of Law and Economics*, 56(2), pp. 333-369

**Monday, November 25:** No class

**Wednesday, November 27:** No class

**Monday, December 2:** The effect of prison conditions and the death penalty on crime

reading: Katz, Lawrence, Steven Levitt,
and Ellen Shustorovich (2003), "Prison conditions, capital punishment, and deterrence,"
*American Economic Review*, 5(2),
318-343

**Wednesday, December 4:** Mandatory office hours (timeslots to be announced)

**Monday, December 9:** Lying with statistics: Simpson's paradox and examples

reading: (Dis)aggregation and Simpson's paradox

Momentous spring at the 2156 Olympics?

Examples of dubious statistical claims

**Wednesday, December 11:** Lying with statistics: group exercises

Further examples of dubious statistical claims (with explanations)

**Monday, December 16 (10:30am-12:30pm):** Final Exam,
cumulative

Last semester's final exam

Ungraded homework 6, answers