2012 GOP primary pool
Handicapping the 2012 race
The game: Both JAS and PJS ante $100, to be spent bidding on 2012 GOP primary candidates. JAS and PJS take turns putting candidates up for auction. Both players then bid, and the player with the higher bids "gets" that candidate at the midpoint of the two bids. The game lasts 20 rounds, with supplemental rounds to follow as needed, and the entire antes go into the pot, whether they have been spent on bids or not. Supplemental drafts with antes of $20 each will be held in spring 2010 and spring 2011.
The scoring: Candidates earn points upon reaching certain milestones related to the 2012 GOP primary:
- 5 points for announcing candidacy
- 10 points for participating in at least one televised debate
- 10 points for receiving at least one delegate
- 5 points for winning at least one primary/caucus
- 5 points for winning the Iowa caucus
- 5 points for winning the New Hampshire primaries
- 5 points if the candidate is still active and viable on March 1
- 5 points if the candidate is still active and viable on April 1
- 53 points for winning the GOP presidential nomination
- 26 points for winning the GOP VP nomination
- 15 points for winning the Southern Republican Leadership Conference straw poll in March 2010
- 7 points for making the most references to Ronald Reagan during the first televised debate
- 7 points for making the most references to Ronald Reagan during the final debate prior to Super Tuesday
- 7 points for being the first candidate to use the word "socialism" or a variant in a televised debate
- 10 points for having the most support among evangelicals in the final Iowa Gallup poll prior to the Iowa caucus
- 5 points for announcing withdrawal from campaign at the 2012 CPAC conference
If JAS earns A points and PJS B points, JAS earns $280*A/(A+B), while PJS earns $280*B/(A+B).
2009 draft
| Price | JAS | PJS | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3.63 | Lindsay Graham | John Thune | $5.58 |
| $3.52 | Mike Pence | Sam Brownback | $.75 |
| $37.68 | Mitt Romney | Haley Barbour | $6.35 |
| $19.28 | Mike Huckabee | Gary Johnson | $3.10 |
| $7.17 | Ron Paul | Sarah Palin | $26.76 |
| $1.23 | John Ensign | Tim Pawlenty | $15.46 |
| $1.03 | Fred Thompson | David Petraeus | $2.93 |
| $9.29 | Mark Sanford | Bobby Jindal | $10.26 |
| $2.11 | Paul Ryan | Rob Portman | $.75 |
| $1.37 | Rudy Guiliani | John Huntsman | $2.35 |
| $.50 | George Allen | Tom Tancredo | $.90 |
| $8.43 | Newt Gingrich | John Kasich | $1.03 |
| $1.63 | Jeb Bush | Rick Perry | $4.34 |
| $1.42 | Dirk Kempthorne | Sonny Perdue | $.50 |
| $1.47 | George Ryan | Charlie Crist | $4.33 |
| Dick Cheney | $.50 | ||
| Mitch Daniels | $1.58 | ||
| Eric Cantor | $2.32 | ||
| John Engler | $.51 | ||
| John Kyl | $1.64 | ||
| Jodi Rell | $.73 | ||
| Richard Burr | $.73 | ||
| Mike Johanns | $1.23 | ||
| Bob Corker | $1.22 | ||
| Jim DeMint | $2.19 |
2010 Supplemental draft
| Price | JAS | PJS | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3.06 | Joe Scarborough | Marco Rubio | $5.20 |
| $12.12 | Scott Brown | Rick Santorum | $4.00 |
| $1.37 | Mike Bloomberg | Tom Coburn | $.56 |
| $.51 | Sean Parnell | Carly Fiorina | $.56 |
| $.58 | Butch Otter | Lou Dobbs | $.56 |
| $1.16 | Chris Christie | Jim McDonnell | $3.78 |
| $.53 | Luis Fortuño | Jeff Sessions | $.71 |
| $.50 | Darrin Gulla | John Boehner | $.60 |
| Bonus | John McCain | Kay Bailey-Hutchinson | $.90 |
| Jeff Flake | $.65 | ||
| Olympia Snowe | $.78 | ||
| J.C. Watts | $.85 | ||
| Joe the Plumber | Bonus | ||
2011 Supplemental draft
| Draft order | JAS | PJS | Draft order |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | John Bolton | Michelle Bachman | 1 |
| 3 | Donald Trump | Herman Cain* | 5 |
| 4 | George Pataki | Judd Gregg | 7 |
| 6 | Buddy Roemer | Meg Whitman | 9 |
| 8 | Joe Lieberman | Stanley McCrystal | 11 |
| 10 | Colin Powell | Rand Paul | 13 |
| 12 | Clarence Thomas |
Scoreboard
| Points | JAS | PJS | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Romney wins SRLC straw poll, 4/10/2010 | Gary Johnson announces candidacy, 4/21/2011 | 5 |
| 10 | Ron Paul participates in 5/5/11 debate | Pawlenty makes 2 references to Ronald Reagan in 5/5/11 debate | 7 |
| 5 | Newt Gingrich announces candidacy, 5/11/11 | Pawlenty participates in 5/5/11 debate | 10 |
| 5 | Ron Paul announces candidacy, 5/13/11 | Santorum participates in 5/5/11 debate | 10 |
| 5 | Mitt Romney announces cadidacy, 6/2/2011 | Cain participates in 5/5/11 debate | 10 |
| 10 | Newt Gingrich participates in 6/13/11 debate | Johnson participates in 5/5/11 debate | 10 |
| 10 | Mitt Romney participates in 6/13/11 debate | Tim Pawlenty announces candidacy, 5/22/11 | 5 |
| 5 | Buddy Roemer announces candidacy, 7/21/11 | Rick Santorum announces candidacy, 6/6/11 | 5 |
| 7 | Gingrich refers to "bureaucratic socialism" under Obama | Michelle Bachman participates in 6/13/11 debate | 10 |
| 5 | Mitt Romney wins at least one caucus (New Hampshire, 1/10/12) | John Huntsman announces candidacy, 6/21/11 | 5 |
| Michelle Bachman announces candidacy, 6/27/11 | 5 | ||
| 10 | Mitt Romney wins at least one delegate (Iowa, 1/3/12) | Huntsman participates in 8/11/11 debate | 10 |
| 10 | Ron Paul wins at least one delegate (Iowa, 1/3/12) | Rick Perry announces candidacy, 8/13/11 | 5 |
| 10 | Newt gingrich wins at least one delegate (Iowa, 1/3/12) | Perry participates in 9/7/11 debate | 10 |
| 5 | Mitt Romney wins the New Hampshire primary (1/10/12) | Rick Santorum takes a majority of IA evangelical votes | 10 |
| 5 | Newt Gingrich wins at least one primary (SC, 1/21/12) | Rick Santorum wins at least one delegate (Iowa, 1/3/12) | 10 |
| 7 | Newt Gingrich says "Reagan" 3 times during final debate before Super Tuesday, 2/22/12 | Rick Perry wins at least one delegate (Iowa, 1/3/12) | 10 |
| 5 | Newt Gingrich active and viable on 3/1/12 | Jon Huntsman wins at least one delegate (NH, 1/10/12) | 10 |
| 5 | Ron Paul active and viable on 3/1/12 | Rick Santorum wins at least one caucus (Iowa, 1/3/12, final vote tally certified on 1/19/12) | 5 |
| 5 | Mitt Romney active and viable on 3/1/12 | Rick Santorum wins the Iowa caucus (final vote certified 1/19/12) | 5 |
| 5 | Mitt Romney active and viable on 3/1/12 | Rick Santorum active and viable on 3/1/12 | 5 |
| 5 | Newt Gingrich active and viable on 4/1/12 | Rick Santorum active and viable on 4/1/12 | 5 |
| 5 | Ron Paul active and viable on 3/1/12 | ||
| 53 | Mitt Romney is presumptive nominee, April 2012 | ||
| 26 | Paul Ryan is presumptive VP nominee, 8/11/12 | ||
| 233 | Total points | Total points | 167 |
| $163.10 | Dollars | Dollars | $116.90 |