2016/2020 GOP primary nomination handicapping

2016/2020 GOP primary pool

Handicapping the 2016/2020 GOP presidential primary

The game: Both JAS and PJS ante $200, to be spent bidding on GOP primary candidates for the next election without an eligible incumbent GOP president (likely either 2016 or 2020). JAS and PJS take turns putting candidates up for auction. Both players then bid, and the player with the higher bids "gets" that candidate at the midpoint of the two bids. The initial draft lasts 100 rounds. Money not spent on the initial draft is carried over, to be used in subsequent supplemental drafts. The person putting forth a candidate is required to bid at least $.10 on that candidate.

The scoring: Candidates earn points upon reaching certain milestones related to the 2016/2020 GOP primary:

5 points for announcing candidacy
15 points for participating in at least one televised debate
10 points for receiving at least one delegate
15 points for winning at least one primary/caucus
10 points for winning the Iowa caucus
10 points for winning the New Hampshire primaries
10 points for winning the South Carolin primary
10 points for polling above 5% at any time in a major poll
10 points if the candidate is still active and viable 2 days after Super Tuesday in year of primary ("active and viable" means that at least one of the following is true: 1-candidate is at 5% or above on Intrade or its replacement, 2-candidate can win the nomination by getting no more than 75% of remaining delegates).
10 points if the candidate is still active and viable 30 days after Super Tuesday in year of primary
100 points for winning the GOP presidential nomination (double if the nominee emerges from a brokered convention)
50 points for winning the GOP VP nomination
5 points for being the first candidate to point out that "President Romney isn't running" in this election, or similar, in a televised debate
5 points for being the first candidate to point out that "President Obama isn't running" in this election, or similar, in a televised debate
10 points for being the first candidate to begin a sentence with "Ronald Reagan..." in a televised debate
10 points for winning the Ames straw poll, August before primary year.
10 points for winning the SRLC straw poll, approximately 2 years before primaries.
5 points for each of the following words appearing in the title of a book authored or co-authored by a candidate, published in 2011-year of primary: "freedom," "Reagan," "liberty," "courage," "socialism," "main street," or "America"
3 points for each documented use of the word "homosexual" in any public speech or debate, subsequent to the formal announcement of candidacy (cap of 20 points/candidate).
10 points for any candidate quoted, verbatim, using the terms "gotcha question(s)," "lamestream media," or "liberal elite(s)." Max 10 points per specific comment, 20 points total.
10 points for any candidate who ranks Jesus as their favorite philosopher/author/political scientist/economist/historian/scholar.
5 points to the candidate who makes the statement most obviously based on the Laffer curve in the first televised debate (tie goes to first reference, if no reference in debate x, bet carries over to debate x+1)
5 points each for the first candidate to call for each of the following things in a televised debate: a balanced budget amendment, an anti-flag burning amendment, a gas tax repeal, repeal of Obamacare, eliminating foreign aid, eliminating the department of education, eliminating the department of energy, eliminating funding for NPR, or eliminating funding for the national parks.
5 points each to any group of candidates who engage in a discussion over what kind of socialist President Obama is during a televised debate
5 points for any candidate or potential candidate who attends a "prayer rally". 10 points extra for announcing candidacy at prayer rally.
5 points to the first candidate to declare he "will never apologize for America" in a televised debate (must be verbatim)
5 points to the first candidate to call for saving money by cutting "waste, fraud, and abuse" at least 3 times in televised debates.
5 points to any candidate or potential candidate caught in a sex scandal between his drafting and the election (requires individual to be a reputable public figure at time of drafting). Triple points if the scandal involves a different sexual orientation than the candidate is known for.
5 points to any candidate or potential candidate who dies between his drafting and election who have no known terminal illnesses at time of drafting. Individual must be born after 1/1/1940, and must be a reputable public figure - as defined in 2016 Democratic game - at time of drafting)
10 points to any candidate using a racial slur or otherwise exhibiting racist views between his drafting and the election (requires individual be a reputable public figure at time of drafting). 10 bonus points if it can be verified that the candidate was formerly in the KKK.
10 points for any announced candidate who authors a diary on redstate.com. 5 extra points if Mike "Gamecock" Devine recommends the diary.
20 points if significant donations are made to the candidate prior to the GOP national convention.

If JAS earns A points and PJS B points, JAS earns $400*A/(A+B), while PJS earns $400*B/(A+B).

The draft: the results of the draft are below.

Draft results

Price	PJS	JAS	Price
$.38	Jeff Duncan	Mike J. Rogers	$.36
.82	Fred Karger	Danny Rehberg	.34
.38	Mike Crapo	Tim Scott	.82
5.77	Mitt Romney	Devin Nunes	.54
.58	Joe Wilson	Mick Mulvaney	.33
27.09	Chris Christie	Sean Parnell	.70
.39	Ron Paul	Jan Brewer	1.53
.80	Sam Brownback	Ben Quayle	.20
3.86	Scott Walker	John Kasich	4.69
.36	Glenn Beck	Mark Kirk	.77
4.12	Jim Demint	Paul LePage	.28
12.24	Rick Santorum	Jeff Flake	1.74
.11	Marcus Bachmann	Joe Heck	.34
2.06	Herman Cain	David Petreus	1.99
2.81	Scott Brown	Jason Chaffetz	.44
.22	Wayne Allard	Nikki Haley	5.20
.28	Jim Nussle	Jon Huntsman	.54
.10	Rodney Alexander	Lincoln Chafee	.11
.38	Robert Aderholt	Marco Rubio	16.56
1.78	Jim Talent	Jeb Bush	10.67
16.98	Sarah Palin	Chris Gibson	.31
.19	Steve Austria	Robert Bentley	.15
.30	Spencer Bachus	Dean Heller	1.11
.20	Rob Bishop	Steve Womack	.31
.54	Paul Broun	Mary Fallin	.74
1.07	John Bolton	Adrian Smith	.34
.38	Ann Marie Buerkle	Frank Giunta	.38
4.89	Luis Fortuño	Mike Pence	7.29
7.35	Eric Cantor	Jeb Hensarling	.68
.29	Shelly Moore Capito	Mike DeWine	.33
1.42	Bill Owens	Condi Rice	2.44
.24	John Carter	Sandy Adams	.34
.31	Mike Coffman	Todd Akin	.40
.20	Erick Erickson	Bob Riley	.38
.31	Jo Ann Emerson	Bill Graves	.69
1.68	Rick Snyder	Pete Wilson	.10
11.67	Rand Paul	John Engler	.89
.28	Bob Goodlatte	Matt Blunt	1.72
1.18	Donald Trump	Jim Douglas	1.20
.34	Michelle Malkin	Rick Berg	.47
8.42	Newt Gingrich	Gus Bilirakis	.29
.29	Andy Harris	Tom Ridge	.59
.35	Vicky Hartzler	Haley Barbour	.37
5.32	John Thune	Diane Black	.17
.10	Sam Johnson	Marsha Blackburn	.48
.10	Roscoe Bartlett	Stephen Colbert	.33
.22	Water Jones, Jr.	Susana Martinez	4.68
15.56	Paul Ryan	Dave Camp	.45
5.11	Bobby Jindal	Allen West	2.63
.10	Mike McIntyre	Ken Cuccinelli	2.61
.25	Doug Lamborn	Sonny Perdue	.32
.22	James Lankford	Joe Walsh	.41
1.22	Kelly Ayotte	Mike Conaway	.28
.20	Donald Manzullo	Geoff Davis	.15
1.07	Thad McCotter	Butch Otter	.26
.46	Joe Manchin	Rick Scott	.90
.26	Alan Nunnelee	Renee Ellmers	.41
.22	Steve Pearce	Brian Sandoval	1.72
.10	Joe Pitts	Stephen Fincher	.35
.44	Connie Mack IV	Virginia Foxx	.27
.29	Reid Ribble	Pat Toomey	2.59
.26	Ed Royce	Trent Franks	.41
.35	Mike D. Rogers	Scott Garrett	.37
.34	Dennis A. Ross	Louie Gohmert	.42
.25	Steve Scalise	Phil Gingrey	.29
.51	Aaron Schock	George LeMieux	.43
1.13	Bill Haslam	Dan Coats	.33
2.29	Rick Perry	Tim Griffin	.33
		Gregg Harper	.29
		Morgan Griffith	.29
		Rush Limbaugh	.48
		Bob McDonnell	6.77
		Rob Portman	4.47
		Bill Huizenga	.38
		Tim Huelskamp	.37
		John Boozman	.46
		Jerry Moran	.40
		Ann Coulter	.44
		Lisa Murkowski	.25
		David Vitter	.22
		Randy Hultgren	.37
		Bill Johnson	.31
		Jim Jordan	.39
		Steve King	.36
		Jack Kingston	.35
		Carly Fiorina	.32
		Tim Pawlenty	1.62
		Mitch Daniels	4.38
		Mike Huckabee	7.96
		Randy Forbes	.38
		John Kline	.31
		Bob Latta	.40
		Mike Johanns	1.09
		Roger Wicker	.38
		Richard Burr	1.63
		Mike Enzi	.28
		John Barraso	.40
		Mike Rounds	.60
		Jeff Sessions	.39
		Patrick McHenry	.43
		Gary Miller	.31
		Jeff Miller	.33
		Randy Neugebauer	.29
		Mike Lee	.77
		Kristi Noem	1.24
		Abel Maldonado	.33
		Kim Guadagno	.26
		Dave Spence	.34
		Ovide Lamontagne	.26
		Eric Paulsen	.32
		Terry Jones	.42
		Bill Bolling	.22
		Ken Bennett	.27
		Jon Bruning	.32
		Mike Pompeo	.35
		Tom Price	.27
		Jaime Herrera	.35
		Tom Corbett	1.82
		Dave Reichart	.39
		Phil Roe	.17
		Mary Bono Mack	.39
		Michael Williams	.51
		Martha Roby	.42
		Scott Rigell	.50
		Matt Mead	.82
		Terry Branstad	.84
		Peter Roskam	.43
		Phil Bryant	.47
		Dave Heineman	.46
		Jack Dalrymple	.46
		Dennis Daugaard	.93
		Robert Schilling	.42
$159.78	Total bid	Total bid	$144.11

Scoreboard

Points	JAS	PJS	Points


0	Total points	Total points	0
$0.00	Dollars	Dollars	$0.00