2016 Democratic primary pool
Handicapping the 2016 democratic race
The game: Both JAS and PJS ante $150, to be spent bidding on Democratic primary candidates for the next election without an eligible incumbent Democratic president (likely 2016). JAS and PJS take turns putting candidates up for auction. Both players then bid, and the player with the higher bids "gets" that candidate at the midpoint of the two bids. The initial draft lasts 50 rounds. Money not spent on the initial draft is carried over, to be used in subsequent supplemental drafts.
The scoring: Candidates earn points upon reaching certain milestones related to the 2016 democratic primary:
- 5 points for announcing candidacy
- 10 points for participating in at least one televised debate
- 10 points for receiving at least one delegate
- 5 points for winning at least one primary/caucus
- 5 points for winning the Iowa caucus
- 5 points for winning the New Hampshire primaries
- 5 points if the candidate is still active and viable on March 1
- 5 points if the candidate is still active and viable on April 1
- 53 points for winning the Democratic presidential nomination
- 26 points for winning the Democratic VP nomination
- 7 points for being the first candidate to claim ability to win "big states" as justification for campaign
- 7 points to the candidate who uses the word "green" or a variant the most times in the first televised debate
- 7 points to the first candidate to use the phrase "windfall profits tax" during a televised debate
- 5 points to the candidate who uses the phrase "tax cuts for the rich/wealthy" or a variant the most during the first televised debate
- 5 points per state to any group of candidates who jointly claim victory in a given state
- Starting 9/30/10, a five-round supplemental draft will be held every year, through 2015.
- Money carries over from year to year; money unused after the 2015 supplemental draft is anted without any return.
- The person putting forth a candidate must bid at least 20 cents on that candidate. Ties go to the person who put forth that candidate.
- At any time, a player may "drop" one of his candidates to the waiver wire in exchange for 50% of the candidate's original bid price in cash, from the bank. A candidate on the waiver wire can be claimed by the other player for 25% of the original bid price, which then goes to the bank. A dropped candidate unclaimed after 10 days returns to the pool of all undrafted candidates.
- 3 points to any candidate who dies, provided his 70th birthday is on or after 1/1/2011, and that he has served at least one day since 1/1/2005 as a US congressman, senator, cabinet member, president, governor, or mayor of a city with a population of at least 300,000, or who is currently a nominee to one of the same.
- 3 points to any candidate currently serving as a US congressman, senator, cabinet member, president, governor, or nominee to one of the same who is implicated in a sex scandal (meaning an admission, a indictment, a resignation, or unassailable publicly available evidence).
- 2 points to any candidate currently serving as a US congressman, senator, cabinet member, president, governor, or nominee to one of the same who is arrested/indicted for DUI, obstruction of justice, or any felony. 4 points if that candidate is convicted on or before November 8, 2016.
If JAS earns A points and PJS B points, JAS earns $300*A/(A+B), while PJS earns $300*B/(A+B).
The draft: the results of the draft are below.
| Price | JAS | PJS | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| $.72 | Robin Carnahan | Mike Quigley | $.67 |
| $.22 | Ben R. Luján | Andrew Cuomo | $.73 |
| $.20 | Alexei Giannoulias | Chris Gregoire | $1.23 |
| $3.02 | Janet Napolitano | Paul Krugman | $.21 |
| $10.80 | Joe Biden | Dave Freudenthal | $1.41 |
| $.92 | Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin | Steve Beshear | $.21 |
| $2.01 | John Tester | Kathleen Sebelius | $5.78 |
| $.55 | Russ Feingold | John Kerry | $.20 |
| $.26 | Gavin Newsom | Harold Ford, Jr. | $1.78 |
| $3.27 | Brian Schweitzer | Jay Rockerfeller | $.20 |
| $.90 | Al Franken | Eric Holder | $.30 |
| $5.64 | Tim Kaine | Dennis Kucinich | $3.02 |
| $2.96 | Kay Hagan | Hillary Clinton | $47.91 |
| $4.70 | Jim Webb | Tom Daschle | $.22 |
| $.50 | Joe Sestak | Sherrod Brown | $4.26 |
| $.20 | Bill Owens | Michelle Obama | $.31 |
| $1.68 | Bill Ritter | Corey Booker | $.53 |
| $.53 | Kendrick Meek | Barack Obama | $.35 |
| $.47 | Jesse Jackson, Jr. | Bev Perdue | $.77 |
| $2.20 | Amy Klobuchar | Xavier Becerra | $.39 |
| $.57 | John Sarbanes | Sheldon Whitehouse | $.67 |
| $.33 | Heath Schuler | David Petraeus | $.54 |
| $.26 | Beau Biden | Rahm Emmanuel | $3.38 |
| $.43 | Jennifer Brunner | Ben Nelson | $.20 |
| $.73 | John Baldacci | John Lynch | $1.17 |
| $2.74 | Kirsten Gillibrand | Tom Udall | $1.17 |
| $.75 | Mark Begich | Mark Udall | $.91 |
| $.96 | Hilda Solis | John Edwards | $.21 |
| $1.57 | Martin O'Malley | Arne Duncan | $1.14 |
| $.99 | Chet Culver | Mark Warner | $7.74 |
| $2.95 | Bob Casey, Jr. | Jack Reed | $1.48 |
| $6.62 | Evan Bayh | Ted Kulongoski | $.22 |
| $.68 | Brad Henry | Anthony Weiner | $.60 |
| $.60 | Susan Rice | Al Gore | $1.47 |
| $.65 | Jeff Merkley | Eliot Spitzer | $.22 |
| $3.20 | Claire McCaskill | Eric Massa | $.21 |
| $.24 | Chuck Schumer | Lisa Madigan | $.37 |
| $.45 | Gary Locke | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | $.90 |
| $1.57 | Jay Nixon | Hank Johnson | $.31 |
| $.62 | Martin Heinrich | Mark Schauer | $.42 |
| $.21 | Tim Geithner | ||
| $.69 | Blanche Lincoln | ||
| $.49 | Russ Carnahan | ||
| $.68 | Betty Sutton | ||
| $2.46 | Ken Salazar | ||
| $.85 | Patty Murray | ||
| $.65 | Brad Ellsworth | ||
| $1.40 | Jack Markell | ||
| $.79 | Mike Beebe | ||
| $.65 | Chris van Hollen | ||
| $.20 | Sander Levin | ||
| $1.03 | Ron Kind | ||
| $.47 | Sonia Sotomayor | ||
| $.42 | Gary Peters | ||
| $.89 | Tom Vilsack | ||
| $.94 | Gabby Giffords | ||
| $1.25 | Chet Edwards | ||
| $1.48 | Mary Landrieu | ||
| $.44 | Peter Orszag | ||
| $.42 | Tom Periello |
2010 Supplemental draft
| Price | JAS | PJS | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| $.29 | Chris Coons | Chris Kennedy | $.33 |
| $.30 | Ron Wyden | Olympia Snowe | $.20 |
| $.20 | Mark Mallory | Francis Slay | $.21 |
| $.60 | John Hickenlooper | Michelle Rhee | $.24 |
| $.23 | Ralph Becker | Joe Manchin | $.91 |
| $.25 | Roy Barnes | ||
| $.25 | Kevin Johnson |
2011 Supplemental draft
| Price | JAS | PJS | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| $.84 | Hector Balderas | Earl Ray Tomblin | .45 |
| $1.18 | Mark Dayton | Deval Patrick | 4.66 |
| $.86 | Peter Shumlin | ||
| $.24 | Leon Panetta | ||
| $.91 | Ed Case | ||
| $.53 | Charlie Crist | ||
| $16.67 | Elizabeth Warren | ||
| .85 | Bill Richardson | ||
| $109.32 | Total bid | Total bid | $101.63 |
Scoreboard
| Points | JAS | PJS | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Weiner involved in sex scandal, June 2011 | 3 | ||
| 0 | Total points | Total points | 3 |
| $0.00 | Dollars | Dollars | $300.00 |